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Bousso: The energy market is in a twilight area because of the ceasefire between Iran and ROI

The Iran war ceasefire will bring much-needed relief to the economies that are suffering from the worst energy crisis in history. However, hopes of a quick return to normal oil and natural gas flow out of the Middle East is almost certain misplaced. Donald Trump, U.S. President, agreed on Tuesday to a ceasefire for two weeks, provided that Iran halted its blockade of oil-and-gas shipments through Strait of Hormuz. This 'narrow waterway' is responsible for about one-fifth of the global oil trade. Iran's Abbas Araqchi, the country's Foreign Minister, said Tehran would stop counter-attacks on vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz and ensure safe passage.

Uncertain is the exact time frame in which the ceasefire will be fully implemented. Iran continued to attack Israel and Gulf states shortly after Trump announced the deal, underscoring its fragility. In its sixth week of fighting, the war has already claimed over 5,000 lives in nearly a dozen different countries. It has also severely damaged regional infrastructure including oil and gas installations. The financial markets welcomed the news. The Nikkei index in Japan rose 5%, reaching a new high. Brent crude fell 13%, to $95 per barrel, by 0300 GMT. Traders priced in an easing of the supply risk.

QUICK RELIEF VAULT

The reopening and temporary stoppage of fighting at Hormuz will allow Middle Eastern oil exporters to ship large volumes of oil trapped in the Gulf since hostilities started, providing immediate relief to global energy markets.

Kpler, a company that provides analytics services, estimates that around 200 tankers are presently?floating in the area with roughly 130 million barrels crude oil and 46 millions barrels refined fuels. Another 1.3 millions tonnes of liquefied gas is also stuck on vessels waiting for safe passage.

The disruption was particularly serious for Asia, where 60% of its oil and 80% of its gas are imported from the Middle East. Following the abrupt stoppage of deliveries, several countries were forced to reduce industrial production and ration fuel. These trapped volumes could therefore be released to ease the greatest pressure on Asian economies.

Clearing the backlog is just one part of the issue. It is one thing to get tankers out of Gulf, but it is another to convince shipowners and chartered vessels to return.

The unprecedented 'blockade of Hormuz' has severely disrupted global shipping markets by reducing the availability of tankers and pushing freight rates up to record levels. Shipowners will likely be extremely cautious when reentering the area during a ceasefire that is at best shaky, and limited in time. They fear their crews and vessels could become trapped again if hostilities return.

This caution will also constrain any attempts to restore normal export flows.

OIL PRODUCTION IN LAG

Kpler reports that Middle East oil exports via Hormuz fell by 13 million barrels a day (bpd), which is equivalent to 13% of the global demand. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates diverted some shipments via alternative routes. However, the disruption forced producers in the region to close an estimated 7.5 millions bpd production in March. This included 2.8 million bpd for Iraq and 1.9million bpd for Saudi Arabia, which is the world's biggest exporter.

It is not likely that much of this production will return quickly.

It can take several weeks to restart oilfields in the Middle East. Saudi Aramco, the UAE's Adnoc and other national oil companies are likely to delay restoring production until they have more clarity about the durability of the ceasefire.

Repairing refineries, fields, and export terminals that have been damaged by drone and missile strikes could take months, or even years. The region is also facing a shortage of skilled workers and specialised equipment, which could slow down restoration efforts.

It is important that producers do not restart refineries and fields if they are not confident there will be enough tankers to move their crude oil, diesel, and jet fuel.

If Washington and Tehran agreed to a permanent cessation in hostilities, which led to the full opening of Hormuz and oil and gas trading could eventually return to normal operations. Even in this more optimistic scenario, however, the war will likely leave lasting scars to global supply.

According to Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee, who is the head of energy analysis, in the medium-term, oil markets could be 3 to 5 millions bpd tighter than they were pre-war, due to the damage done to export infrastructure, and the need to replenish?depleted stocks.

The two-week-old ceasefire that is now in place risks becoming a temporary fix to what has become a global energy crisis of unprecedented proportions unless the warring sides reach a more firm peace agreement. The opinions expressed are those of Ron Bousso a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)