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Bousso: The energy market is in a twilight area because of the ceasefire between Iran and ROI

The Iran war ceasefire will bring much-needed relief to the economies that have been hit by the worst energy crisis in history. But hopes of a quick return to normal oil and natural gas flow from the Middle East are most likely misplaced. U.S. president Donald Trump agreed on Tuesday to a ceasefire for two weeks, provided that Iran halted its blockade of gas and oil shipments through 'Strait of Hormuz', the narrow waterway which typically handles?one fifth of the global oil trade. Abbas Araqchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, said Tehran would "halt counter-attacks" and ensure safe passage of vessels traversing the strait.

Uncertain is the exact time frame in which the ceasefire will be fully implemented. Iran continued to attack Israel and Gulf states shortly after Trump announced the deal, highlighting its fragility. In its sixth week of fighting, the war has already claimed over 5,000 lives in nearly a dozen different countries. It has also severely damaged regional infrastructure including oil and gas installations. The financial markets welcomed the news. The Nikkei index in Japan rose 5%, reaching a new high. Brent crude fell 13%, to $95 per barrel, by 0300 GMT. Traders priced in an easing of the supply risk.

QUICK RELIEF VAULT

The temporary ceasefire and reopening the Hormuz Strait would allow Middle Eastern exporters of oil to move significant volumes that have been trapped in the Gulf since hostilities started, providing immediate relief to global energy markets.

Kpler, a firm that provides analytics services, estimates that around 200 tankers are presently containing 130 million barrels crude oil and 46 millions barrels refined fuels in the region. Another 1.3 millions tonnes of liquefied gas is also stuck on vessels waiting for safe passage.

The disruption was particularly severe for Asia, where 60% of its gas and 80% of its oil imports come from the Middle East. Following the abrupt cuts in fuel deliveries, several countries were forced to reduce industrial production and ration supplies. These trapped volumes could therefore be released to ease the greatest pressure on Asian economies and energy systems.

The problem is not just clearing up the backlog. It is one thing to get tankers out of Gulf, but it's another to convince shipowners and chartered vessels to return.

The unprecedented blockade on Hormuz caused a severe disruption to global shipping markets, as it reduced tanker availability and pushed freight rates up to record levels. Shipowners will likely be extremely cautious when reentering the area during what, at best is a shaky, time-limited ceasefire. They fear that their vessels and crews may once again get trapped if hostilities return.

This caution will also constrain any attempts to restore normal export flows.

OIL PRODUCTION IN LAG

Kpler reports that Middle East oil exports via Hormuz fell by 13 million barrels a day (bpd), which is equivalent to 13% of the global demand. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were able to divert some shipments via alternative routes. However, regional producers had to close down an estimated 7.5 millions bpd production in March. This included 2.8 million bpd for Iraq and 1.9million bpd for Saudi Arabia.

As things stand, it is unlikely that much of this production will return quickly.

It can take several weeks to restart oilfields in the Middle East. Saudi Aramco, the UAE's Adnoc and other national oil companies may hesitate to restore production until they have more clarity about the duration of the ceasefire.

Repairs to refineries, fields, and export terminals that have been damaged by drone and missile strikes could take months or even years. A shortage of skilled workers and specialised equipment could also slow down restoration efforts in the region.

It is important that producers do not restart refineries and fields if they are unsure of the availability of tankers to transport crude oil, diesel, and jet fuel.

If Washington and Tehran agreed to a permanent cessation in hostilities, which led to a full reopening the Strait of Hormuz and oil and gas trade could return to normal operations. Even in this more optimistic scenario, however, the war will likely leave lasting scars to global supply.

According to Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee, who is the head of energy analysis, in the medium-term, oil markets could be 3 to 5 millions bpd tighter than pre-war expectations over the next several years due to damage done to export infrastructure, and the need to "rebuild depleted inventory",

The two-week-old ceasefire that is now in place risks becoming a temporary fix to what has become a global energy crisis of unprecedented proportions unless the warring sides reach a more firm peace agreement. The opinions expressed are those of Ron Bousso a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)