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APK-Inform reports that weekly exports to Ukraine have increased by 28%.
APK-Inform, a consultancy, said that weekly exports of?wheat, corn, and?barley grew by 28% from?August 20 through?August 26 to 240.900 metric tons. The volume was 173,300 tonnes of wheat, 58.900 tons corn, 8,600 tons barley, and other grains. The Ukrainian grain exports have dropped sharply after Russian missile and drone attacks in the Black Sea region of Ukraine. APK-Inform data showed that early in July, when the ports?operated as usual, Ukraine exported approximately 760,000 tonnes?of grain each?week. APK-Inform didn't provide an explanation for the increase in exports last week, but did note that Ukraine increased grain shipments into its ports along the Danube River by 35%. After the closure of Ukraine's seaports it has redirected grain shipments towards ports on the Danube, and its western borders. However, officials and analysts claim that these alternative routes cannot compensate for the loss seaports. The Ukrainian agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi said that the food exports from Ukraine could 'decrease to around 1.7 million tonnes this month, and are expected to be about 2 million tons by September due to the blocked seaports. Before the blockade, Ukraine exported food cargoes of at least 4,000,000 tons per month.
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Temasek supports Singapore Airlines' Air India Investment amid growing scrutiny
Singapore's state-owned investor Temasek - the majority shareholder of Singapore Airlines -- backed its investment in Air India on Saturday, as questions grew about the airline’s stake in the Indian carrier. This week, the first report on Air?India's request to Tata Sons for $1.5 billion of new equity was published. Singapore Airlines holds 25.1%, while Tata owns the remainder of India's largest airline. Kenneth Tiong of Singapore's Workers' Party opposition, who learned about the funding request, called for Temasek's money not to be used in order to support the Indian carrier. Singapore's Business Times also published a comment arguing that Singapore Airlines couldn't realistically sell its Air India stake and that?Tata was the only viable buyer. The newspaper questioned the value of its 25,1% stake beyond a seat on the board and a share in the losses, but maintained that the strategic logic behind the investment was still valid. Juliet Teo of Temasek Singapore's joint head of Portfolio Development wrote to the newspaper in response to this?commentary. She said that Temasek supported Singapore Airlines decision to invest into Air India and viewed it from a longer-term perspective. In the letter, it was stated that Air India's transformation involved multi-year, complex operational and integration challenges. The outcomes were shaped by external factors, such as industry developments, geopolitical changes, and fuel price volatility. It said that "efforts of this magnitude take time and cannot be expected to be linear." Temasek has not stated whether it would support any capital contributions by Singapore Airlines to Air India. Tata has been in charge of Air India since 2022, when it was formerly owned by the state. Air India was hit by the ban on Indian carriers in Pakistani airspace, the U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran and the fallout of a fatal crash that occurred last year. The airline's?budget division Air India Express and the airline itself posted combined losses of $2.33billion in the year up to March. This weighed on Singapore Airlines' profits. Singapore Airlines announced on Thursday that its board will carefully review any requests from Air India for additional capital, taking into account the group's capital requirements as well as Air India's strategy.
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Boeing and union negotiators will meet on Monday to restart stalled contracts negotiations
A spokesman from the Society of Professional Engineering Employees Association said that Boeing's negotiators and its largest union, SPEEA, plan to meet on Monday to resume contract negotiations. SPEEA members rejected Boeing's offer by a large majority last week. In a recent survey conducted by SPEEA, union members including engineers and technical workers said that they want Boeing to guarantee them immediate and larger wage increases. According to the survey results, shared by SPEEA, more money for annual performance-based increases is the?second highest priority. According to the survey, the?third-highest priority was better annual cost-of living adjustments. Boeing's spokesman said, "We are looking forward to reaching an agreement with SPEEA before the current contract ends and we look forward to finding a resolution at the bargaining table." The company declined further comment. Tuesday, the planemaker advertised?contractor positions in apparent preparation for a strike after the current contract expires Oct. 6. SPEEA members are essential to Boeing's efforts to certify the 737 -MAX 10 and 787-9, which both are years behind schedule. Work stoppages would further delay the two aircraft's entry into service. Airlines are still waiting for their delivery. Reporting by Dan Catchpole, Seattle. Editing by Nick Zieminski & Chizu Nomiyama.
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Tennessee Governor: Nashville airport will be named after Dolly Parton
Tennessee plans to name Nashville International Airport after country music icon Dolly Parton. The singer passed away in the 'country music capital' earlier this week at age 80. After Parton's death, fans launched a social media campaign to change the name of the airport. Tennessee Governor Bill Lee discussed the change with Parton's staff this week, according?to statements from the airport and Lee’s office. Lee stated in the statement that "Dolly Parton’s extraordinary life will forever be woven into the fabric of our State." Nashville International Airport is named after 'our favorite daughter' Dolly Parton, who has left a legacy of generosity, faith and kindness. According to a statement, the proposal to rename Nashville Airport and the current Metro Nashville Airport Authority naming policy will both be discussed at a meeting scheduled for September 17. The New York Times reported that the current policy does not allow naming a property after someone who hasn't been deceased for two years. Parton was born in 1946 in Pittman Center, Tennessee. She grew up in an?unique?cabin? in the?neighborhood of Locust Ridge. At age 13, she was performing on the Grand Ole Opry in Nashville, Tennessee. After graduating high school, she moved to Nashville and pursued a career in music. With songs like "Jolene," "Coat of many?Colors," and "I Will Always Love You," Parton became one of the best-selling female musicians of all time. She sold over 100 millions records. She was awarded 11 Grammy Awards including the Lifetime Achievement Award.
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Trans Mountain CEO: US trade dispute adds urgency to Canada’s oil pipeline plans
According to the CEO of Trans Mountain, the government-owned pipeline company, Friday's?collapse in trade talks? with the United States created an urgency? to?plan a?new oil pipeline? for Canada's West Coast. Although the project is still in its conceptual stage, both the oil producing province of Alberta and the Canadian government believe it to be in the national interest. Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki said that the need for this project became apparent in recent weeks. Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world. It exports 90% of its oil to the U.S. but tensions are rising between the two countries. Last week, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of?50% on $20 billion in Canadian goods. He also angered Canadians with an executive order declaring Lake Ontario, the body of water that spans the Canada-U.S. boundary, to be known as Lake America. Maki stated that the situation highlighted the need for Canada to diversify their exports. The west coast pipeline project would achieve this by increasing Canadian oil ships' access to Asia. "Events in the world around us have made it (the pipeline on the west coast) more urgent and I actually think that is good. He said, "It's very helpful." The 890,000-barrel-per-day Trans Mountain pipeline is the only east-west oil export pipeline in Canada. The Canadian government tripled the capacity of this pipeline in 2024. However, Canadian oil production is still growing and it's already nearly full. Trans Mountain Corp. would build and develop the proposed west-coast pipeline on a route similar to its existing pipeline with financial assistance from Alberta's Petroleum Marketing Commission and the Pembina Pipeline. The project proponents are asking Ottawa to declare the pipeline a national interest project, which will allow regulatory approvals to be expedited. Maki said Trans Mountain had to move quickly to consult Indigenous Communities and plan the route to be able to apply for regulatory approval in early 2019. Trans Mountain also works to optimize the existing pipeline by using drag-reducing agents in order to add?90,000. bpd to the capacity of the pipeline by the end of this year. The company will make a final decision on investment by the end 2026 to build more pumping station to increase 210,000 bpd capacity by the 2028. (Reporting and editing by Rod Nickel in Calgary)
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Trump Administration appeals $16 Billion Hudson Tunnel Funding Order
The Trump administration appealed on Friday a court order that required it to pay for the $16 billion Hudson Tunnel Project?after losing their latest bid to halt funding for 'the New York - New Jersey Rail Link. The project will build a new commuter train tunnel between Manhattan and New Jersey, and repair an old tunnel that is used daily by over 200,000 passengers and 425 trains. The funding dispute is a new clash between the Trump administration and the congressional Democrats on one of the largest infrastructure projects in the country. Trump has stated that he is against the tunnel which received federal support of about $15 billion under former president Joe Biden. The?U.S. The Transportation Department abruptly halted grant funding for the project on 1 October in response to a partial government shutdown that President Donald Trump blamed congressional Democrats. A U.S. court?ordered that the payments resume in February. Trump announced in October that he terminated the project citing U.S. backing. Chuck Schumer is a New York Democrat who expressed concerns over potential cost increases. The Department, which didn't comment immediately on Friday, had said that the freeze was imposed to ensure compliance with regulations prohibiting improper use of "diversity equity and inclusion" policies when funding. The heavily damaged tunnel from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 needs frequent repairs, which disrupt travel on the nation's busiest passenger rail line. Construction was temporarily halted in February, but resumed when the Trump Administration released funding that it had been withholding since October. The Gateway Development Commission which oversees the?project for New York and New Jersey has sued the Transportation Department separately in the U.S. Court of Claims, to ensure that the funds aren't frozen. Trump offered to unfreeze funds in January if Democrats would support his proposal to rename Washington Dulles Airport, and New York Penn Station. Democrats criticised the idea. The federal funding for the project has already been spent on around $2 billion.
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Serbia obtains additional sanctions waiver for Russian owned NIS oil company
On Friday, energy minister 'Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic' wrote on Instagram that?Serbia had secured a further waiver of sanctions from the United States until September 30 for its Russian-owned NIS Oil firm. The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control has granted a waiver to NIS, the operator of Serbia's sole oil refinery. This will allow NIS to continue importing oil until the Russian majority stake is sold by MOL, a Hungarian oil company, for a total of 51%. "The extended license allows us to continue supplying the market, while at same time working on an long-term solution (for NIS),"?Djedovic handanovic said. OFAC imposed sanctions against NIS in October last year as part of broader measures targeting Russia's energy sector due to the conflict in Ukraine. They demanded that Gazprom and Gazprom divest their combined 56% stake. This waiver is vital for Serbia, as the NIS refinery supplies around 80% or its demand. The Balkan country's other fuel imports fell to 25% of its monthly target in July due to record-low water levels on the River Danube forcing barges and tanks to operate at only a third their cargo capacity. Djedovic Handanovic said that negotiations between MOL & Gazprom Neft were in the final phase. She said without further explanation that "the new?licence is a sign of progress and a desire to provide the extra time necessary to complete this complicated transaction." OFAC granted NIS several waivers of sanctions allowing it import crude via Croatia’s Janaf pipeline while MOL completed the?acquisition following a provisional agreement in January. The Serbian Government owns 29,9% of NIS. Small shareholders and employees hold the rest. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens and Kirby Donovan; Aleksandar Vasovic, Angeliki Koutantou)
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Kremlin: Putin and Xi will discuss Power of Siberia 2 next week
Yuri Ushakov, Kremlin's foreign policy adviser, said that the Russian president?Vladimir Putin would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping?on a side-line?of??the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit?? in Bishkek?, Kyrgyzstan?s capital. Ushakov stated that the leaders will discuss the?planned 2,600-km (1.616-miles) Power of Siberia?2 system, which is expected to transport 50 billion cubic meters (bcm),?of gas a year?to China via Mongolia?from the Arctic Gasfields. Power of Siberia 2 is stalled because of price disagreements, and the pipeline talks have been going on for many years. Putin will also meet with Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan, and he is expected to discuss with him the situation in Ukraine and at the Black Sea. The Kremlin's aide confirmed that Putin would also meet with the?Indian PM Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. (Reporting and writing by Anton Kolodyazhnyy; Written by Vladimir Soldatkin)
Joachim Klement: The next Iran war could be closer than you think.
The Iran war is over, but many people may mistake a pre-election break for peace. Tehran's economic leverage will remain strong until the U.S. midterm election in November but may weaken after the results are announced, increasing the risk of renewed confrontation.
How can the rest of the globe avoid being collateral damage in this new dangerous environment?
It is unclear whether the 60-day negotiations between the U.S.
The most important thing for the markets is the fact that the interim agreement has restored the energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz. This was the crucial energy chokepoint which had been effectively closed off during the conflict. Crude prices have fallen to levels seen before the war.
However, the clock is ticking.
Many, including myself, argued from the beginning of the war that the rising oil price would have a greater impact on the politics of the conflict than missiles or diplomacy. This seems to be borne out now.
Although the war may have been longer than anticipated, economic and political pressures seem to have heavily influenced Donald Trump's decision, as demonstrated by the U.S. willingness of giving Iran many items from its wish list for the simple act of reopening strait.
The midterm elections held in November have always been a key deadline for the administration. This is still the case. What will happen to the power balance between Washington and Tehran once the midterm elections are over?
Peace for Now
The American public was unpopular about the war. Trump's net rating in anEconomist/YouGov survey fell from -negative 17 at the beginning of the war to -negative 24 before a ceasefire framework announcement, and it has since recovered to -negative 21.
The rise in energy prices played a major role. Trump's net rating for inflation and price has plummeted to a negative 40.
The trajectory of gasoline prices in the coming months will determine how much damage the Trump administration is able to control. Energy Information Administration data shows that pump prices have fallen from near $4.50 per gallon during the war to $3.90.
If peace talks fail, this could change. Tehran may not need to even close the Strait of?Hormuz in order to influence energy costs. The Iranian government may not even need to close the Strait of?Hormuz in order to influence energy prices. This risk premium can quickly affect crude oil and gasoline prices as well as freight costs, fertilisers, and industrial input costs. This gives Iran more power in an election year.
Brent crude is down 40% since the peak of the war. Energy traders are willing to ignore minor incidents between the U.S. This could change quickly, however, if Iran appears to be willing to use its Hormuz cards again.
THE RISK RETURNS
However, the delicate balance of power could change dramatically after the U.S. Midterm elections on November 3.
If Republicans lose their seats, Trump may face a hostile or divided Congress that makes it more difficult to pass legislation and budgets.
RealClear Polling shows that Democrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot with a margin of over five percentage points. They are believed to have an excellent chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives where they need only a net gain of 5 seats.
Trump may be more tempted to pursue political victories overseas, where there are fewer restrictions from Congress and the courts.
Trump has been criticized both domestically and internationally for an interim agreement that favors Iran.
Brent's rapid retreat also suggests that energy traders are able to quickly dismiss political risks. This could make renewed military action more appealing after the midterm elections.
Iran has the upper hand for now. But that could change in the fall if the parties cannot reach a final agreement. This is a possibility, given the distance between the parties on important sticking points, such as Iran's nuke program.
This seesawing leverage does not lead to a permanent war, but rather persistent risk.
The SAFER STRATEGIC BET
This leaves the large energy consumers - such as Europe and Asia - susceptible to sudden spikes in gas and oil prices, and disruptions in the supply of fertilizers and other commodities.
Reduce the influence imported fossil fuels have on their economies.
Europe appears to have got the memo. Many governments in the area are reconsidering their domestic oil and natural gas production as a temporary solution and increasing investments in renewables, nuclear power and other energy sources to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels.
This shift will increase the supply chain dependence on China as the dominant player in renewables. The nature of this dependence is not the same as a reliance on imported energy.
If imports of gas and oil are stopped, the power plants and refineries who rely on these products will be immediately under pressure. If China restricted exports of'solar cells or?wind turbines, existing wind and solar farms would continue to operate. Which is a safer'strategic bet'?
The Iran War may have ended, but a longer battle could be just beginning. It is important for countries that are vulnerable to prepare.
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(source: Reuters)