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Maguire: Iran war is worse for natural gas than oil.

The Iran war seems to have a similar impact on oil and gas, with missiles, drone attacks and shipping disruptions choking the Strait of Hormuz.

Underneath the surface symmetry, there is a serious imbalance. Gas consumers are more affected by the global supply chain because it has fewer rerouting and storage options than the oil markets.

Gas infrastructure, liquefaction plant in particular, is more complicated and expensive to build and maintain than oil equivalents. Oil refineries are able to resume operation more quickly after a shutdown than LNG export hubs.

Prices have made this imbalance clear: European and Asian benchmarks for gas prices are much higher than crude oil benchmarks since the conflict started, an indication that gas will take longer to recover than oil.

BAD TIMING

This disruption could not have come at a worse time for gas.

According to the Energy Institute the growth in global gas demand is roughly double that of oil over the last decade. This is due to the expansion of pipelines and storage systems. This growth trajectory was widely expected to continue in the future, particularly as emerging economies move away from coal.

The global LNG industry has grown steadily due to the positive outlook for the gas market.

The world's second largest LNG exporter, Qatar, has suddenly had its LNG supply cut off after Iranian attacks knocked down 17% of their export capacity. This could last up to five more years.

The resultant increase in gas prices has warned consumers about the dangers of heavy import dependence and will likely slow the addition of new gas-fired energy capacity.

Gas for electricity has never been so affordable.

Solar panels and batteries are a cheaper and faster way for power providers to increase electricity than adding new gas capacity. This can take many years to develop.

Costs for gas turbines, in particular, have also risen this decade due to global shifts of manufacturing capacity and the soaring demand from wealthy economies that are building data centers.

SHIFT PIPELINE

These forces have already changed the location of new gas capacity.

Global Energy Monitor reports that the U.S., the world's largest natural gas exporter and producer, has increased its share in the pipeline planned for new gas capacities from 10% to 33% by the start of 2026.

Gas power components are being sought by U.S. utilities, and other tech giants to increase?electricity supply for artificial intelligence applications.

This aggressive push squeezes out cost-sensitive markets. India, a fast-growing economy that was once expected to be a major consumer of gas, has cut back on plans to increase gas capacity.

India's energy firms are adding coal-fired power to their mix of power sources to offset this. India is expanding its oil refinery base, and it is expected that fuel production and exports will grow through 2030.

Storage Squeezer

Gas storage is more difficult than oil.

The crude and refined products can be stored easily in land-based tanks and on ocean tankers. This will help to prevent supply disruptions.

Natural gas, on the other hand, takes up a lot more space than oil at room temperature. It must then be compressed or supercooled to a liquid form for better storage.

This limits the storage of gas and increases its cost.

Gas consumption is also highly seasonal. In most countries, demand peaks during winter and then drops sharply in shoulder seasons.

The demand for refined fuels is fairly consistent throughout the year in many major economies.

Storage operators are unable to plan their sales and purchases in a way that is profitable, as compared to fuel storage companies who can expect to have multiple tank farms turn over each year.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The war has caused significant disruptions to both oil and gas flow. The oil industry is expected to recover faster.

The major Middle East oil producers are already redirecting supplies via pipelines outside of the Strait?of Hormuz to ports that are not affected by the conflict in Iran. This should help oil supplies rebound even though the conflict continues.

The global gas system, on the other hand, has no immediate way to overcome the fall in?Qatari supply, which is likely to send reverberations through the gas supply chain and speed up the search by industry and power companies for alternative fuels.

Even a quick end to the fighting will not bring much relief to gas prices. The damage to Qatar's exports alone is likely to take many years to repair and those buyers who are already reversing their course, won't be able to do so.

It is likely that some major economies, such as the U.S., will continue to be heavily dependent on gas.

In response to recent gas supply cuts, more cost-sensitive markets could collectively 'curb their exposure to gas,' leaving a permanent mark on an industry which, until recently, was gearing up exactly for the opposite.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)