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Motiva: Exxon prepares East Texas refineries to weather storm, say sources
People familiar with the plant operations reported that Motiva Enterprises and Exxon Mobil Corp were preparing their East Texas refineries to withstand high winds and flooding in anticipation of a tropical storm approaching 'the U.S. Gulf Coast. Sources said that Exxon and Motiva have not cut production at their refineries in Port Arthur, Texas, and Beaumont, Texas, respectively. However, they have secured loose equipment and items which can be blown away by high winds, or drifted by flood waters, should the storm develop and make landfall Tuesday. Exxon spokesperson Kelly Davila stated on Monday that the company was closely monitoring the storm and both Beaumont, Texas and Baytown, Texas refineries were operating normally. A spokesperson for Motiva did not respond to a comment request. Freeport LNG and Cheniere Energy said that they were closely monitoring the storm. Cheniere said that it would modify its operations if needed, but so far there has been no impact to production. Cheniere operates two liquefied gas plants in Texas, one at Sabine Pass near the Texas-Louisiana boundary and another at Corpus Christi. Freeport LNG is located in Freeport, Texas. The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicts that Tropical Depression 5 will become Tropical Storm Edouard by Tuesday, when it reaches Port Arthur. According to the Hurricane Center, Edouard is not expected to reach hurricane-like strength. It will produce winds of no more than 58 mph (93 kph). Sources claim that Exxon activated their?Incident Command System" on Monday afternoon. Valero Energy Corp has ?not modified operations at its 235,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Port Arthur refinery, sources at the refinery said. Motiva Port Arthur is the largest refinery in the United States with a capacity to process crude oil of 656 400 bpd. Exxon Beaumont can take in 612,000 barrels per day, while Baytown, located on the east side Houston, has a capacity of 564,000.
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Ares raises the largest amount of money for its unit, $4 billion, to benefit Japan Logistics Fund
Ares Management is a U.S. investment firm. On?Tuesday, its real estate division raised $612 billion yen for its Japan Logistics Development Fund, the largest closed-end institutional fundraising to date. Ares announced in a Tuesday statement that the fund, 'Japan -Logistics Development Partners V LP', had reached its hard cap (maximum target) and was nearly 50% bigger than its predecessor for 2021. Ares stated that the fund would primarily invest in modernizing logistics in Japan's major metropolitan markets, such as Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka, and Nagoya. The real estate services company CBRE has projected that the rents of large multi-tenant logistic facilities in Japan's four major metropolitan areas would increase by 2027 as the demand for modern warehouse space in Japan grows. According to Ares' statement, the fund had attracted money from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds as well as insurers, financial institutions, and other large investors in North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. Ares stated that Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), which has backed each Japan logistics fund launched since 2011, is the cornerstone investor and has committed 150 billion yen to the fund. Gilles Chow is the managing director and head of real estate Asia Pacific for CPP Investments. Ares stated that the fund had a total investment capacity of 1.7 trillion yen and was already invested in projects worth 450 billion yen. Marq Logistics will operate and develop the assets. Marq managed about 120 million square foot (11 million sq m) in Japan as of June 30, according to Ares. According to a statement from the group, Ares Real Estate had assets worth about $121 billion and Ares Management more than $671.
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Sources say that activist investor Elliott owns Air Liquide and is pushing for change.
Sources familiar with the situation say that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a stake in Air Liquide, and they are urging it to improve its margins. Elliott has been working with the company since a few months and is encouraging management to improve to "better compete" with competitors in the industrial gas sector, according to the sources. Air Liquide, based in Paris, has a market value of approximately EUR108 billion. It was not possible to?determine the size of Elliott’s?stake. Elliott refused to comment, while Air Liquide didn't respond to a comment request. Air Liquide is a competitor of Linde and Air Products and Chemicals. Industry analysts have said that the margin gap between Air Liquide and Linde increased in recent years, indicating Linde's successful operational optimization plan. Analysts said that the margin gap between Air Liquide and Linde is currently 9 points. They added that they expect it to stay at this level for some time. Air Liquide is holding an analyst meeting later this year. Industry analysts are wondering if the company will announce share buybacks. This could be a good thing for the company.
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The US announces a sharply reduced vehicle fuel efficiency requirement
Sean Duffy, Secretary of Transportation, said that the Trump administration would'soon' announce a sharply lowered vehicle fuel economy standard, reversing an effort by the previous administration to compel automakers to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. The federal government under Republican President Donald Trump hasn't released the final standard. However, automakers anticipate it will be similar to the December proposal by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The proposal was to reduce the fleetwide average fuel economy from 50.4 miles/gallon (21,4 km/liter) under Democratic President Joe Biden to 34.5 miles/gallon (14.7km/liter) by 2031. Duffy, speaking at an event in Michigan, said: "We're about to announce a "commonsense fuel efficiency standard" because we want Detroit car manufacturers to build cars Americans want to purchase -- not cars Democrats want Washington to manufacture." Biden was focused on reducing U.S. greenhouse gases and fossil fuel usage, accelerating the transition to clean energy, and making the U.S. The United States is a leader in the field of?clean energy technology and manufacturing. NHTSA proposed in December to retroactively reduce the fuel economy standard for 2022 and then raise it by 0.25%-0.5% annually until 2031. Biden increased the required fuel efficiency of cars by 8% per year for model years 2024-2025, 10% per year for 2026 and then 2% each year from 2027-2031. The Trump administration has retroactively changed the fuel standard to 2022 to make it easier for automakers to meet future standards. Biden's rules aimed to encourage automakers to build more electric vehicles to meet rising fuel efficiency standards. NHTSA estimates that its proposal will reduce the cost of new vehicles by $930 per vehicle. It would, however, increase fuel consumption and spending by $185 billion by 2050. Carbon dioxide emissions would also rise by 5%. Congress has decided to stop collecting penalties in 2025 for failure to meet fuel economization standards. This will save automakers hundreds of millions 'of dollars and end $7,500 tax incentives for consumers buying EVs. The law also removed California's authority for 2035 to ban gasoline-powered cars. This is a decision that the state has challenged.
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GLP Japan raises $3.76 billion to build logistics centers, Nikkei reports
The Nikkei reported that GLP - Japan has raised 600 billion dollars ($3.76 billion) to create a fund for building logistics centers. This is a result of an influx in overseas capital. GLP Japan is a Japanese subsidiary of Singapore-based logistics firm GLP. The?Tokyo GLP Japan fund's investments, including borrowings, will total 1.7 trillion yen. This makes it the largest real estate fund in the country, according to?Nikkei. The report stated that the majority of investors are from outside Japan. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board allocated 150 billion yen. The funds raised are expected to be used for the construction and renovation of up to 40 large facilities across Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka. The report said that cold-storage facilities will be complemented by e-commerce-ready facilities. GLP was unable to respond immediately to a comment request outside of 'normal business hours. Nikkei reported that institutional investors in Japan, Middle East pension funds, Asian government-backed funds, and US and European pension funds will also provide support.
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Sweden orders French warships to strengthen its defense
During a ceremony 'in Stockholm - on Monday - the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristinsson and French President Emmanuel Macron signed an order for four Naval Group Frigates. Sweden, NATO's new member, is rushing to increase its military power after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced it to abandon its long held?policies of neutrality. European governments have, more generally, increased their defence spending as a'response' to the pressures of U.S. president Donald Trump. They are also less confident that they can rely on U.S. assistance. Macron said that "France and Sweden in the 'European Union' and NATO demonstrate that European sovereignty is built together." He said that the order from Sweden "strengthens industrial and technological base of European defence in a time when Europeans are taking greater responsibility for their security and consolidating NATO's "European pillar." In May, Sweden announced that it would "order" the vessels from the French company as part of a $4 billion contract which will triple its air defence capability. The first of the four new ships, which will be Sweden's largest ship, is expected to be delivered by 2030.
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Sweden inks French war ship order
Sweden's Defence Material Administration?signed an?order?for four Naval Group navy frigates?on Monday during a ceremony in Stockholm - attended by French President Emmanuel Macron, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristiersson. In May, Sweden announced that it had ordered the vessels in a $4-billion deal with?the French firm. This will?triple its air defence capability in the face of security threats on the Baltic Sea. Sweden, NATO's new?member, has been rushing to?upgrade its military in the wake of Russia?s invasion of Ukraine. The first of four new frigates - which will be the largest ships in the Swedish navy - is expected to be delivered by 2030. The deal comes at a moment when France and Sweden are deepening defence ties. They want to push for greater 'European military independence', as doubts about the commitment of U.S. President Donald Trump -to Europe- have prompted governments on the continent to reconsider their dependence on American weapons and security guarantees.
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School head: Last-minute flood warnings saved more than 900 Nepalese students
Last Wednesday, Headmaster Rajendra Dawadi, was at his school in Bidur, Nepal, when his accountant entered and shouted: "The flooding is coming!" The flood is coming, the flood is coming! Teachers at Tribhuvan Trishuli secondary school began to receive panicked calls from family and friends. A roaring wave mud water had already made its way upstream through the valley, flattening whole towns. The accountant received a phone call from a family member in Rasuwa. Rasuwa was the first to be hit, and had only 14 minutes to evacuate. This decision saved both students and teachers lives. The school was rebuilt in Nepal after the devastating 2015 earthquake, which killed 9,000 people. It is located on a peninsula, wedged between the Trishuli River and a Hydropower Canal. In an interview, Dawadi said that "we immediately said: stop the class and ring the bell." The school is no more and the former site of its location lies within the riverbed. A PANICKED Escape At the time of the initial warning, over?900 students were present on campus. Dawadi claimed that he had instructed buses carrying more students towards the school to move to safer grounds and began to evacuate the building. Dawadi reported that at least one fainted as chaos spread. Motorbikes were used by parents, teachers and students to collect their children. Some were transported to safety by bus, while others ran up higher or climbed to safety. The 60,000-person town was flooded by the time the final?bus had crossed the nearby bridge over the river, approximately 14 minutes later. Dawadi reported that the old bridge collapsed as "our bus crossed over the new bridge". Headmaster Dawadi, who was a student at this school before becoming its 'headmaster', now wants authorities to rebuild it in a secure location as quickly as possible. Only God can do this Many parents credit Headmaster Dawadi for saving their children. "He was a god. He gave my daughter, and many other children's lives. "Only God can do it," said Man Maya Tamang (50), who thought initially that she had lost Sushmita. Many others in Bidur were not warned until it was too late. Dawadi reported that at least one staff member?and mother of the school accountant are missing. The accountant was able to take his father uphill, but when he returned to get his mother the house had been swept away. Dawadi claimed that he managed to get his father up the hill, but his house was destroyed when he returned with his mother.
Europe prepares for economic impact of Iran conflict
The U.S. and Israeli military attack on Iran could push inflation up, and stifle the already weak economic growth in Europe.
The attacks disrupted the commercial shipping in Gulf, which is a major source of fuels and petroleum products to Europe. The interruption of energy supplies immediately increased the price on financial markets.
Fuel prices will likely rise and the Bank of England and European Central Bank's outlook may be clouded, causing them to delay any rate cuts until they clear the fog of war.
What you need to know about the economic impact on Europe of the Iran Conflict:
CHOKE POINT FOR OIL GAS AND OTHER OTHER PRODUCTS
The Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It's a major gateway for Gulf exports, including oil, gas, and chemicals.
Hormuz is the route through which 20% of all oil produced in the world, including that from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran, as well as large quantities of LNG from Qatar, travels.
After the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Europe has shifted its energy imports to the Gulf region.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Britain, Italy and Belgium are among the European countries that depend the most on LNG imports via the Strait of Hormuz.
According to broker Kpler, the Gulf is a major producer of propane, butane, and ethane which are used in heating, agriculture, and as fuel.
EUROPEANS PAYING HIGHER FUEL PRICES?
Shipping data indicates that more than 200 vessels, including oil and gas tankers, have dropped anchor in the Strait of Hormuz as a result of conflict with Iran.
The oil and gas price has increased immediately. Brent futures rose nearly 8%, to $78 per barrel. Natural gas prices on the Dutch market were up 19%, at 38 euros a megawatt-hour.
In its December projection, the ECB assumed a natural-gas price of 29,6 euros/MWh this year and a crude oil price of $62.5.
The ECB will publish its new macroeconomic forecasts on the 19th of March. A cut-off date has been set for energy prices and other market indicators, which is three weeks before that -- this Wednesday.
This would mean an upgrade in its projections for energy inflation. The ECB could, however, decide to create several scenarios. This is what it did when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
UniCredit said on Monday that oil prices are likely to remain at around $80 due to the abundance of oil. A major escalation would be required, such as damage to Saudi oil infrastructure to push the price up to $100.
What else is affected beyond energy supplies?
Suez Canal has been the conduit for a vast amount of trade between Europe and Asia.
In late 2023, many vessels on this route were re-routed to Africa following attacks by Yemeni Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. However, before the Iran conflict broke out, shipping companies were considering increased use of Asia-Europe's vital trade corridor.
Shipping companies began to reroute vessels away from the Suez Canal on Sunday, potentially increasing freight rates and raising the cost of imported goods.
What is the impact on growth and inflation?
According to the ECB, the impact on inflation of the recent oil price increase is much greater than its impact on growth.
In its sensitivity analysis, published in December, it argues that an increase of 14% in oil and gas prices would only lower the growth rate by 0.1% and increase inflation to 0.5%.
Next year, these impacts will be similar in magnitude and then begin to fade.
According to polls, the euro zone and UK economy are expected to grow at 1,2% and 1%, respectively, this year and then 1.4% next year. This pace is modest compared to the United States where output is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2020-27.
The impact would be minimal compared to 2022 when Russia's aggression against Ukraine will cause energy prices to rise. According to a study by the European Commission, this lowered growth by 1% and increased inflation by 2%.
Energy is priced in dollars, so a relatively strong euro could also help to reduce the impact.
In a separate report, the ECB argued that the growth impact is likely to be temporary, as the economy will adjust.
How will the central banks react?
Investors have lowered their bets that the Bank of England will cut its Bank Rate benchmark by a quarter of percentage point this month. Pricing suggests a 69% likelihood, down from a 78% probability on Friday.
The ECB has already shown that it will not be taking any immediate action. It is expected to keep its rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
The central bank of the eurozone does not react to volatility in the short term and ignores temporary energy price spikes.
Any reaction will be determined by how long and how wide the conflict is. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Sunday that the Iran operation might last for four weeks.
Commerzbank economists saw no impact on the economy if war only lasted a few short weeks.
If it continued for several months, they estimated that inflation in the Euro zone would likely rise by at least 1 percentage point. Economic growth would also be lower by a few tenths.
A modest increase in inflation would not affect the target.
The ECB is usually concerned if a single inflation shock begins to impact longer-term expectations of prices and spreads through to broader wage and pricing trends, via what are called second-round impacts.
The ECB will say for the moment that they are monitoring temporary volatility, but remain alert to any developments.
The market's expectations of longer-term inflation remain largely unchanged, which likely reinforces the bank’s message to wait and see.
The markets are all on the same page. This year, no interest rate changes are priced. Reporting by Francesco Canepa, Balazs Coranyi and Topra Chopra.
(source: Reuters)