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Investors fear a further Middle East escalated as oil prices rise by 5%

On Thursday, oil prices increased 5%, reversing the previous session’s decline, amid fears that a long-term conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supply.

Brent?futures rose $5.26 or 5.2% to $107.48 per barrel at 10:57 am?EDT (1450 GMT), near the session high of $107,84. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose $3.53 or 4% to $93.85 per barrel after reaching as high as $94.84.

Both benchmarks fell more than 2% Wednesday. Iran has reviewed a U.S. plan to end this war but does not intend to hold talks, said Iran's Foreign Minister on Wednesday.

U.S. president Donald Trump warned Iran to "get serious," on Thursday, about a deal that would end almost four weeks of fighting. A day earlier, White House press secretary Karoline leavitt had said the U.S. would hit Iran harder if Tehran refused to accept the fact that it has "been defeated militarily."

"There is confusion and frustration over the veracity?of stories coming out of Iran and the United States." Timothy Snyder, Matador Economics' chief economist, said that investors are again moving into safer assets to conserve capital. Sources have confirmed that the Pentagon plans to send thousands more airborne troops into the Gulf in order to give Trump a wider range of options for a possible ground assault. This will be added to two Marine contingents currently en route. A Houthi leader said that the Iran-aligned Houthi Movement in Yemen is ready to strike again the Red Sea waterway as a show of solidarity with Tehran.

Soojin Kim, MUFG analyst, said that "ongoing military escalation" - including troop deployments, fresh strikes and limited tanker movements under strict Iranian conditions - continues to strain the global energy markets.

TRUMP'S FIVE-POINT PLAN According to three Israeli cabinet members familiar with the plan, Trump's five-point proposal would eliminate Iran's highly enriched uranium stocks, stop enrichment, curtail its ballistic missile programme, and cut funding to regional allies.

Conflict has almost stopped shipments through Strait of Hormuz which typically transports about a fifth of world crude oil and LNG. The International Energy Agency called it the "biggest disruption of oil supply ever". Iraq's oil output has dropped, and storage tanks are at critical levels. Three Iraqi energy officials confirmed this on Wednesday. According to data from the U.S. Energy?Administration, Iraq will be the second largest crude producer in OPEC in 2025 behind Saudi Arabia. Sanae Takaichi, the Japanese prime minister, asked Fatih Birol, chief of the IEA on Wednesday for a coordinated release of additional oil stocks as Tokyo sought to protect itself against a prolonged conflict. According to calculations based upon market data, the Russian oil export capacity has been halted by at least 40% following Ukrainian drone strikes and the seizure or tankers. On Thursday, ?Russia's Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery, one of the largest in the country, halted processing on Thursday following Ukrainian drone attacks that ?caused fires in some parts of the plant, two industry sources said.

Interfax reported Thursday that the head of Russia's oil-pipeline monopoly Transneft would try to redirect oil from Baltic Sea ports damaged by storms. Turkey's transport minister stated on Thursday that a marine drone had struck a Turkish crude tanker leaving?Russia and caused an explosion in the Bosphorus Strait near Istanbul. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.9m barrels, to 456.2m barrels for the week ending March 20. This is the highest level of the last six years and exceeds analyst expectations. (Reporting from Siddharth Cavale in New York, with additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Yuka Obaashi, in Tokyo, and Siyi Lu in Singapore, and editing by Bernadette B. Baum, Ros Russell, and Paul Simao.

(source: Reuters)