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Asia spot prices increase for the third consecutive week due to cold weather demand

Asia spot liquefied gas prices rose on Friday for the third consecutive week, holding at a record high of nine weeks. Colder temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere boosted heating demand and U.S. exports were lower earlier this week.

The average price of LNG for March deliveries into Northeast Asia Industry sources reported that the price per million British thermal units (mmBtu) was $11.60, up from $11.35/mmBtu in the previous week.

Siamak Adibi is the director of gas and LNG supply analysis at FGE. He said that prices are on the rise for TTF and JKM, the benchmark prices for the Dutch TTF hub and Japan-Korea Marker.

He said that the stronger Henry Hub prices have an indirect effect on spot LNG. U.S. Natural?gas Futures have risen 140% in the last seven trading days, as an Arctic blast has sparked a surge in heating demand and frozen oil and gas?wells. This has also led to a drop of gas production that is two years low.

Adibi said that while U.S. gas supply has returned to normal after disruptions at Sabine Pass, and Freeport in particular, flows had?not recovered fully as of January 29. Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with consultancy ICIS. He said that the extreme cold in the U.S. prompted "unusual" moves in the global LNG fleet. Several cargoes were diverted to North American facilities in order to meet the heating demand. Three cargoes, from Australia and Canada, are also headed to Europe and the Americas rather than their usual Asia destination.

S&P Global Energy's daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in March, on a de-ship basis (DES), was $12.505/mmBtu as of January 29th, a $0.94/mmBtu reduction from the price at TTF hub.

Spark Commodities rated the price for February at $13.374/mmBtu. Argus rated it at $12.380/mmBtu.

According to Froley, the European gas price should drop as soon as the short-term cold spell ends. However, low storage levels will need to be replenished by a steady flow of cargoes throughout summer.

Golden Pass will begin supplying new supplies in the coming months to help meet this need.

According to independent gas analyst Seb K Kennedy, the sale of TTF shorts positions increased last week, amid an intense winter price surge. The number of investment funds that trade TTF futures also dropped by about 5 percent, as holders of'short positions' were squeezed by the price rally. According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan, LNG freight rates in the Atlantic region have fallen to $11,250/day. Pacific rates are down to $30,500/day.

He added that the U.S. forward-month arbitrage via Cape of Good Hope to Northeast Asia closed out this week due to the continuing fall in the JKM/TTF spread. (Reporting and editing by Emily Chow)

(source: Reuters)