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Ecopetrol accepts board revamp backed by government
The newly-installed government of President Abelardo de La Espriella approved on Tuesday a major reorganization of the board at Colombia's state controlled oil company,?Ecopetrol. This comes as the company is reeling from corruption allegations and yet another senior management shake-up. The current chairman Luis Felipe Henao, Cesar Loza and Ricardo Rodriguez Yee were reappointed as members of the nine-member Board. The new board will decide whether Henao continues as chairman at a future meeting. The new management comes just a day after Ecopetrol announced the departure of?acting CEO Juan Carlos Hurtado by mutual consent, with effect from Tuesday. This announcement extended a period of turmoil for Colombia's largest company. Ecopetrol announced late Monday that Camilo Barco would be taking over as interim CEO. Local media attributed Hurtado’s departure to alleged irregularities with contracting and appointment. Ecopetrol didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment about the move. Hurtado was previously the head of hydrocarbons and had been leading the company as an interim leader since April when Ricardo Roa left over allegations of influence peddling, campaign finance violations, and former President Gustavo Petro’s 2022 election campaign. The markets are now waiting for the government to choose a new CEO. Ecopetrol is the largest oil producer in Colombia. The Colombian Government owns 88.49% of it. Ecopetrol also operates Colombia's main refineries, and the majority of its oil and fuel pipe network. Since De La Espriella's appointment in early August, dozens of?Ecopetrol employees have quit or been fired. Ecopetrol is?hit by a series of scandals?involving allegations of corruption and influence-peddling by officials appointed under Petro's government. The people under investigation haven't been convicted.
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Boeing to salvage Turkish Airlines delayed order, sources claim
Four people with knowledge of the matter claim that Boeing is nearing the completion of a delayed order to purchase 150 737 MAX aircraft after Turkish Airlines threatened to walk away from a high-profile contract over a dispute with engine manufacturer CFM. Three people have confirmed that the deal is now on track and could be signed as soon as next week. The agreement, which was part of a package containing 225 jets, had been delayed by a disagreement regarding the airline's demand for a industrial deal on maintenance of engine. Boeing and GE Aerospace's and France Safran's joint-ownership of CFM engine maker CFM declined to comment. Turkish Airlines has not responded to a comment request. Airlines are increasingly forced to negotiate long-term deals for engines at the same time they order new jets due to a recent shortage of supply chains and increasing spares prices. This adds complexity?to high-profile aircraft deals. If the order was confirmed publicly, it would prevent a potentially embarrassing reversal last year of the White House announcement. This is one of several Boeing deals that are associated with?U.S. Two sources, who asked not to be identified, said that the president was involved. Turkish media reported that Trump and Erdogan will'meet again next week to coincide with the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York. The White House did not immediately comment on whether or not the two leaders will meet. Industry sources claim that the core of the dispute revolves around who should be liable for the costs of long-term repair. Maintenance Plant 'PREMIER Turkish Airlines has a fleet of over 400 Boeing and Airbus aircraft, making it one of the largest airlines in the world. It was only a few weeks after the announcement of the larger Boeing deal that it suddenly?threatened' to switch from the 150 MAX planes in the order to Airbus citing a price dispute with CFM. Sources in the industry later revealed that the airline wanted to establish its own maintenance facility?for the engines that power the 737 MAX, by joining directly the top tier CFM partners. This would give accelerated access to the latest repair technologies. The two sides did not appear to have reached an agreement about the "Premier Maintenance Plant" immediately. Larry Culp, GE Aerospace's CEO, commented on the unusual spat that occurred last October. He compared the airline's threat of cancelling the deal with negotiating "new contracts in public" and said GE's price strategy reflected value to the customer. A senior Turkish Airlines executive said at an industry conference on Monday that the airline continues to consider more aircraft orders to support the rapid expansion?of its Istanbul hub. Okan Bas, Senior Vice-President Finance of the airline, told the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading meeting that the airline was studying regional jets - such as the Embraer E2 and Airbus A220 - while comparing them to the larger Boeing 777X or Airbus A350-1000. He refused to comment on the Boeing MAX order.
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Enbridge opens the season for a proposed Texas natgas pipeline
Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, announced?that on Tuesday it began a non-binding public season for its proposed West Texas Express gas pipeline. The pipeline would transport gas from the Waha region of the Permian Shale in the west to markets around El Paso. The Permian, located in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, is the largest oil-producing shale region in the United States. The Permian basin, located in West Texas, eastern New Mexico and Pennsylvania, is the second largest gas-producing shale region in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that as oil and gas are produced more, pressure within the reservoir decreases. Gas is easier to produce under lower pressures. This increases the ratio of gas to oil. According to EIA, the gas-to-oil (cf/b) ratio has increased steadily over the last five years. It now averages nearly 4,200 cubic foot of gas for every barrel of oil. This is a 16 percent increase from 3,600 cf/b around 2021. To process and transport more gas, pipelines and?energy infrastructure will be needed. Enbridge, who transports 20% of gas in the U.S. said that its proposed West Texas Express project is in response to the growing demand for reliable supplies by proposed 'power generation, utilities and generators, and industrial customers like data centers in West Texas, and markets in Mexico New Mexico and Arizona. West Texas Express will include 150 miles of pipeline with a capacity to transport up to 2 billion cubic feet per day. One billion cubic feet can supply gas to five million U.S. homes for one day. Enbridge stated that it is "targeting" a date of in-service in the fourth quarter 2029, subject to securing enough commercial support and obtaining necessary approvals. The open season, which is not binding, began on September 10 and ends on September 25.
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Saudi cancels oil shipments after pipeline damage, leading buyer seeks alternatives
Trade sources report that Saudi Arabia has cut off oil shipments from Europe to the Red Sea after drone attacks damaged its main export pipeline. This prompted top customers, such as Poland, to look for alternatives when cargo prices reached $120 per barrel. Saudi Arabia blamed the attacks on Iraqi militias, forcing the kingdom to shut down its East-West Desert Oil Pipeline on Friday. This has saved it from the worst of impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure over the past six months. On Tuesday, oil trading and shipping sources reported that Saudi Arabia informed European customers of the cancellation of some September-loading cargoes and that oil loadings in Yanbu at the Red Sea Port had been suspended. Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, declined to comment. Trading sources say that the cut in Saudi oil flows through the Red Sea is likely to prompt Saudi Arabia to try to export more oil via Strait of Hormuz, using dark shipments similar those used by United Arab Emirates and Iraq. These shipments allowed Gulf oil producers export 7 to 9 million barrels of crude oil per day, or 30 to 40 percent more than before the war. Brent oil futures are trading at $108 per barrel, and cargo prices on the physical market in Europe have risen even more. Brent is the key benchmark for dated oil. LSEG data indicated that the price of a barrel was around $122. Data from Vortexa shows that Saudi Arabia loaded 22 millions?barrels? of oil onto 12 vessels in the week between September 7 and 13, compared to the 6 to 7 vessels each week during the previous three weeks. It was not possible to determine immediately how many shipments bound for Europe or how long Yanbu loading would be suspended. TRADERS: ORLEN, POLAND'S PRESIDENT, RUSHES TO FINDS ALTERNATIVES Five industry sources reported that Orlen PKN.WA, a Polish integrated oil company, was rushing to locate crude oil cargoes in the North Sea or elsewhere to replace Saudi imports. Aramco was Orlen's biggest supplier in 2022, and supplies about 40% of its oil. This helped wean Orlen off Russian oil while making it dependent on the Saudi producer. Orlen declined comment on specific commercial transactions but said that it actively manages the supply portfolio in order to ensure the continuous operation of its'refining assets. Orlen's spokesperson said that "adjusting and optimizing purchase volumes" is an ongoing, standard part of their operations. This is driven by current production requirements?and changing markets conditions. Orlen bought several crude oil cargos in spot auctions between Friday and Monday. Two sources said that it purchased grades from the North Sea, including Grane and Johan Sverdrup. Two sources said that it?also bid for grades from further afield, including U.S. WTI Midland as well as Kazakh CPC blend. One trader reported that it issued a second tender on Tuesday for the purchase of North Sea or Algerian oil for October delivery as well as Guyanese for November delivery. However, results have been slow to emerge. Orlen's subsidiaries own and operate oil refineries throughout Poland, Lithuania,?and Czech Republic. Kpler data showed that the Baltic port of Gdansk in Poland has received approximately 160,000 bpd Saudi crude so far this year, while Lithuania's Butinge has received 63,000. The tenders had not been published and the results of the bids could not be confirmed directly with the counterparties. The company spokesperson confirmed that the feedstock deliveries to Orlen's refineries continue uninterrupted.
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US FAA: billions of dollars more required to modernize air traffic management
The Federal Aviation Administration's head said that the first phase of a plan to "modernize air traffic control" will cost "billions of dollar more than Congress approved." The Congress approved $12.5 billion in funding for air traffic control, which included $9 billion to modernize air traffic and $3.5 billion to build new facilities. Bedford told a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee that phase one would cost $16 billion. He said that the FAA was funding the 'gap' out of their facilities and equipment budget. Bedford, FAA's director of project management, urged lawmakers for approval. The FAA is asking for at least $10 billion more to complete phase two. Bedford said, "The agency is working to scale up in order to get it done and done correctly." In a report released by the Government Accountability Office on Tuesday, the FAA was found to have underestimated the costs associated with operating the new system and failed to set out a schedule for reform completion. GAO estimates that the FAA has more than 11,000 projects in phase 1, which it previously estimated to be worth $10.6 billion. Bedford stated last year that it was looking for $15 billion to $16 billion in phase one. This is what caused the shortfall. Congress approved funding for the upgrade of the "aging air traffic control" system and to increase the hiring of controllers. This comes after decades of complaints about airport congestion, flight delays, and "a series of technological issues". GAO reported that the?cost of telecommunications upgrades jumped from $4.75 billion dollars to $5.91billion dollars. Bedford said that outdated copper wires for telecoms should be replaced completely by September 2027. In December, the FAA awarded a $1.5billion contract to Peraton (owned by Veritas Capital) for overseeing modernization efforts.
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US Energy chief says Saudi Arabian oil pipeline could be back in days
Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy Secretary, told CNBC that crude oil would be flowing through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in a few days after it was temporarily closed by Iran-aligned group attacks. Wright told reporters on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Houston that "it's still detailed, but it will be measured by days." He said Saudi Arabia is taking steps to get more oil out the Strait of Hormuz, with the help of the U.S. Military. Since the U.S. War on Iran, the 1,200-km (745-miles) East-West Pipeline that runs across the Arabian Peninsula has served as the primary route for Middle?Eastern Oil supplies to the world. The strait connecting Iran and Oman is now largely closed. The pipeline was moving between 4 and 5 million barrels a day, which is 4% to 5.0% of global oil supply. This spared Saudi Arabia from the disruption that has hit other Gulf oil and?gas?exporters. Washington has so far refused to support Saudi Arabia's requests for direct military action beyond intelligence assistance, according to three sources. Monday. U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he spoke with the Saudi crown Prince over the weekend. He also said that Iran-aligned Houthis who have launched drone and missile attacks against the kingdom from Yemen had contacted Washington to urge it to remain out of the conflict.
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Sources say that uranium prices in India have risen due to supply shortages.
Three sources reported that the Russian Urals crude premiums have risen to $8 per barrel against Brent for delivery in Indian ports. This is the highest level since May as a result of a 'lower crude supply' from Gulf producers because of 'the Iran War. The oil prices rose on Tuesday, after an attack on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure knocked out the East-West Pipeline. This sparked fears that repairs to damaged energy infrastructure and transport routes may take longer. Sources claim that cargoes from Russia's Urals are trading at an $8 premium per barrel delivered to India, compared to the $1 premium for Brent in August. The price of the Russian Far East ESPO blend oil grade, which is mainly bought by China, has also risen significantly due to high demand. This was fueled by a shortage of Middle Eastern and Iranian oil. This also supported Urals prices in India as these two countries are the main buyers of Russian oil. The 'lower loadings' at the Black Sea port Novorossiysk in this month are also supporting urals prices. The port, according to traders, is still shipping oil at a lower capacity because of 'high security risks' and the lack of tankers. Due to drone attacks in August, Novorossiysk's crude exports, and transit shipments, fell by more than half from July. They dropped to less than 350.000 barrels per day, from 800,000.
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UN considers moving Ukraine's aid underground after a warehouse attack
The U.N. humanitarian coordination in Ukraine announced 'on Tuesday that his organization is considering moving aid supplies underground, to avoid Russian strikes. These 'attacks have hit 10 of its warehousing facilities this year, destroying supplies worth millions of dollars. Matthias Schmale, U.N. Humanitarian coordinator in Ukraine, said that Matthias Schmale: In Geneva. After briefing the states on the needs in 'Ukraine five years after Russia's full scale invasion, he stated: "These deliberate attacks against warehousing capacity (...) are a new trend of the last couple of months." He said that they are considering moving aid into underground bunkers, and delaying the purchase of aid supplies to the last minute in order to minimize exposure to strikes. He said: "This is increasingly feeling like the frontline is moving up into the sky." "That also means additional costs to taxpayers who, at the end, 'pay for the goods brought in by the U.N. or other humanitarians," he said. He added that such costs weren't foreseen within the $2.3 billion aid budget of the UN for 2026. He said that the U.N. was investing in equipment for staff protection, including more armored vehicles and drone detection devices, and is also considering requests from Ukraine to build'mobile drone shelters' in the street, near bus shelters and other public places, in response to a rise in civilian casualties.
China's changing energy mix undermines global LNG growth
?China has been viewed as the main driver of future LNG demand by producers for years. This helped justify billions in investment infrastructure from?the U.S. Gulf Coast up to Qatar.
China's appetite is waning for super-chilled fuel, even though producers are preparing a new wave of supply in the coming years. This could undermine the viability of future projects that rely on long-term needs of imports from Asia and Europe.
The Iran 'war' has triggered a second global LNG supply crisis in four years, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine?in 2022. This is reinforcing China's push to prioritize domestic gas, pipeline gas, and renewable energy while reducing the share of imported LNG.
Megan Jenkins, S&P analyst, said: "Even if the Persian Gulf LNG supply eventually returns to China, we expect increased energy security concerns there will lead to a more cautious approach towards LNG."
She said that this would lead to efforts to increase energy independence, resulting in a lower LNG demand than we had anticipated before the war.
JPMorgan S&P Global Energy, and Wood Mackenzie all reduced their estimates for China's growth in LNG demand between the early 2030s. They have done so by 14 to 22 million tons. The demand is expected to grow between 19 and 53 millions tons from 2025 until early 2030.
Shell, the top LNG trader in the world, has released its latest outlook. It offers a variety of possible outcomes. The low-case scenario is that imports will peak at 120,000,000?tons (ton) by 2035. A high-case scenario would be near 150,000,000 tons by 2040. The 2024 outlook projected imports to peak around 2030-2035, at 146 millions tons.
UPCOMING NEW CAPACITY
Global producers face high stakes. The IEA predicts that by 2030 there will be around 217 millions tons of?export capacities, a 40% increase from the current levels. This is mainly due to expansions in Qatar and the U.S.
Up to 10% of the new capacity could be impacted by the weaker outlook on China's LNG consumption. This may affect final investment decisions for new projects.
Henning Gloystein is director of Energy, Climate and Resources at Eurasia Group. He said that China's rapid de-carbonization will "almost certainly" impact LNG FIDs and cause cancellations of certain projects, particularly those with long lead times and high costs.
As many Asian and European countries are still LNG import-dependent, it is likely that most U.S. project will go ahead.
According to Wood Mackenzie Research Director for Asia Pacific Gas and LNG, Huang Miaoru said that due to the U.S. China tariff dispute and Beijing's tax on U.S. LNG direct purchase agreements are unlikely between Chinese buyers, and U.S. developers.
Chinese buyers will instead be expected to purchase LNG from portfolio players that source LNG from different projects.
She said that "while?China will remain the dominant driver for Asian and global LNG through the mid-2030s," the commercial and geopolitical path to capture this demand has become significantly more complex for U.S. Project Developers.
Venture Global, a U.S. exporter of LNG, said that it continues to see a strong commercial demand in Asia which is growing.
Cheniere Energy declined to comment. QatarEnergy has not responded to a comment request.
Alternatives to LNG
China has many alternatives to LNG thanks to its years-long efforts to diversify and increase self-sufficiency. This helped it avoid the worst effects of the Iran War despite being the top energy importer in the world.
The development of unconventional gas resources, such as shale and coalbed methane, has driven the growth in domestic gas production by an average 9.5% per year over the past 25 years.
China also intensifies its energy relations with Russia by increasing pipeline gas imports. In 2027, the Far East pipeline will begin delivering gas. This will further reduce?incremental LNG consumption. Power of Siberia 2, a larger and more ambitious project, would be another major pipeline source.
JPMorgan analysts wrote in an email that recent developments had, in their opinion, accelerated China’s acceptance of Power of Siberia 2. China is more motivated to reduce LNG imports through this route, as Iran has been exploring new ways to control the transit via Hormuz and monetize it.
The continued expansion of coal-fired power capacity and the world's largest renewables buildout in China are reducing gas demand growth.
Zhang Yaoyu, global head of LNG at PetroChina International and new energies, said that renewable energy is a "structural obstacle" to LNG usage. This was stated in February during a conference held in Doha.
The levelized cost of solar and wind electricity has dropped dramatically. How do you compete? He said.
According to Rystad, ICIS, and S&P, China's LNG exports will fall between 61 and 64 million tonnes this year. This is the second consecutive decline.
Customs data show that China imported 68.4 millions tons of LNG last year, narrowly edging out Japan as the top LNG importer in the world.
According to Rystad energy analyst Xiong Wei, the competition from local gas production and pipeline supply last year pushed down the price that China would buy LNG on the spot markets to $8-$9 per million British thermal units.
This is a significant discount to the spot price of $25/mmBtu that was charged after Iran's attacks on the world's No. 2 LNG exporter, Qatar. Qatar is the world's No. 2 LNG exporter.
Sinopec, a state-owned energy company, halted the expansion of its Tianjin import terminal in March, instead using 590 million yuan (4 billion yuan) to increase domestic gas production, according to a statement released in March.
Analysts say that a surge in global LNG supplies could drive down prices and stimulate future demand in China where coal-to gas switching is expected to be the driving force behind future demand.
Gloystein, of Eurasia, said Beijing would be encouraged by its success with renewable-fueled electrification. He also noted that Beijing has been stockpiling fuel to protect itself against supply disruptions.
He said that the peak in China's gas and oil demand will come sooner than expected.
(source: Reuters)