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IATA chief: It could take several months for jet fuel supplies to recover following the reopening of Hormuz

Even if Iran were to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it would still take months before jet fuel supplies could'recover' due to disruptions in Middle East refining capacities.

Oil dropped below $100 per barrel after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he had agreed on a ceasefire for two weeks with Iran, subject to an immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz normally transports about a fifth of world oil trade.

Willie Walsh (director general of IATA, the International Air Transport Association) told reporters in Singapore, that although he expects crude oil prices will fall, jet fuel costs are likely to remain slightly higher due to the impact refineries have on the cost.

Walsh stated that even if the refinery were to reopen, it would still take months for the supply to reach the level it needs to be, given the disruption in the Middle East's refining capacity, which is an important?part of global supply, not only of jet fuel but also of other refined products.

As the Middle East conflict has squeezed jet fuel supplies, airlines across Asia are cutting flights, bringing extra fuel to their home airports, and adding fuelling stops. This is adding pressure to an industry that was already hit by a doubled price of jet fuel.

After?China, Thailand, and South Korea stopped jet fuel exports, the pain was felt most in low-income markets that depend on imports, such as Vietnam and Myanmar, and Pakistan.

Walsh said that if crude oil started flowing again, "I'd like to believe" that China and South Korea would resume their exports of refined products.

Walsh stated that "there is (refining capacity) available once we get crude oil flowing. But it will take some time. And with the crack spread being 'elevated,' I think this provides an incentive for refineries to increase production of jet fuel."

The crack spread is a measure of refinery margins. Reporting by Lee YiChin in Singapore, and Julie Zhu from Hong Kong. Editing by Anne Marie Roantree Christian Schmollinger Jamie Freed

(source: Reuters)