Latest News

The high shipping costs and contract structure limit Russia's ability to reroute LNG away from Europe

Industry analysts say that Russia's threats to stop LNG deliveries to Europe and divert cargoes towards Asia would be difficult to achieve due to its long-term agreements and the need for more Arctic class tankers.

In a television interview conducted in early March, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would'stop gas deliveries to Europe immediately and seek long-term commitments from other buyers.

Gas prices have risen due to the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, which has effectively cut off 20% of the global LNG supply.

Russia could be forced to look for alternative customers in order to obtain LNG, as the European Union has banned Russian LNG imports under short-term contracts starting April 25, and long-term agreements beginning January 1, 2027.

In a TV interview, Putin said that he had been "thinking aloud" and said: "Perhaps we would be better off if we stopped supplying the European Market right now."

Analysts said that the structure of Russia’s LNG contracts left it with limited flexibility to ship gas elsewhere.

Kpler data shows that the European Union will import 14.94 million metric tonnes (mt) or 20.3 billion cubic meters (bcm), from the Yamal LNG Project in Russia's Western Arctic by 2025. Around 70% of the Yamal volumes are bound to long-term agreements.

Tom Marzec Manser, Director Europe gas & LNG, Wood Mackenzie, stated that Russian companies had around 2.4 mt spot LNG available in this year. It would be uneconomical to send those volumes before the Arctic routes reopen in the summer.

Marzec-Manser said that based on the available volumes for the remainder of the year, "a maximum of 1.7 mt can be diverted from Europe to Asia."

According to Eurostat, this represents approximately 1.7% of EU LNG imports in 2025, which total 100.5 million tonnes.

Shipping the gas can be a challenge, despite the fact that there is a supply. The Northern Sea Route along the Russian Arctic coast is the fastest way to reach Asian customers, but it is only navigable part of the time.

Kjell Eikland of Eikland Energy, a shipping consultancy that analyses energy shipping, says that ARC7 ice class vessels are able to travel via the Northern Sea Route between July and late November.

Analysts and shipping data indicate that cargos bound for Asia must always travel through the Suez Canal, or via the Cape of Good Hope. This can take up to twice as long, depending on the route.

According to Eikland, Yamal LNG exports 18 millions of tons per annum.

He said that to maintain this level, and to serve customers in Asia by 2027, Novatek, Yamal LNG’s majority owner, would have to charter 25 to 35 additional tankers for the winter to ship LNG through the Suez Canal, or Cape of Good Hope.

Eikland stated that re-routing 30 percent of the volumes sold in spot contracts this year from Europe to Asia could require ten additional vessels.

Since early March, Russia has avoided using the Suez route after a tanker containing 'Russian LNG' caught fire near the coast of Libya. Moscow described the incident in Libya as an attack launched by Ukrainian drones. Ukraine has not responded.

Need for Big Discounts

The issue of financing is another major obstacle for Russia.

Yamal does not face direct sanctions by the U.S. and?Europe but many other Russian LNG facilities, vessels, and finance companies do, making it difficult to obtain trade financing.

LNG trading sources told that ?payment for extra LNG flows would likely have to be outside conventional banking channels, largely through government-to-government arrangements.

According to a Rystad Energy analyst, Masanori Odaka: "LNG freight rates have risen following the Middle East Crisis, so diverting to Asia only makes sense at substantially discounted prices."

Analysts said that given the rise in LNG prices, even a steep discount on Russian LNG could still be "too expensive" for Asia's price-sensitive buyers.

Analysts said that China, which is already Russia's largest customer, would likely seek large price discounts if it were to purchase any additional Russian LNG.

China has taken in all volumes of Russia's Arctic LNG-2 project sanctioned by the United Nations, but at a steep discount of 30-40% to LNG benchmark prices.

(source: Reuters)